Characterization: a large area of "power shortage" broke out again
in the first half of this year, China's national economy grew by 9.6%. At the same time, from January to June, China's electricity consumption increased by 12.2% year-on-year. While the economic growth rate dropped slightly, the rapid growth of power consumption caused the most serious "power shortage" since 2004
from March to may, which was supposed to be the off-season, China's power consumption was close to the peak level of last summer's power consumption, and 11 provinces and cities across the country experienced "power shortage"; With the rising temperature in summer, the power gap is further expanding
this "power shortage" occurred on the basis of the rapid growth of China's installed power generation capacity during the "Eleventh Five Year Plan", which is significantly different from the previous "power shortage". Behind the "power shortage" that has reappeared after seven years, it conveys the health information of the "economic body": a large area of "power shortage" broke out again in the first half of this year, Hangzhou Nobel Ceramics Co., Ltd., which settled in Jiujiang, suffered from power shortage - due to the restriction of power consumption indicators and the implementation of measures to avoid peak errors, the company can only guarantee normal production for 6 hours a day
since March 29, Jiangxi has experienced "off-season power shortage" for the first time. In Ganzhou, Yichun, Pingxiang and other places, the proportion of power rationing in many counties and cities has reached more than 35%, and some enterprises can only "start one stop six"
in addition to Jiangxi, the eastern developed regions such as Zhejiang and Jiangsu and the central and western provinces such as Hunan, Anhui, Hebei, Shanxi, Chongqing and Guizhou have also suffered the most severe "power shortage" in recent years. Since May, 11 provinces and cities have taken measures to regulate and control power supply with voltage
from 2003 to 2004, the growth rate of electricity consumption in China has exceeded 15% for 17 consecutive months, and 21 provinces, autonomous regions and cities across the country have switched off and limited electricity to varying degrees. This year's large-scale power shortage is the most serious since 2004
the rapid growth of power demand is the main reason for the large-scale power shortage this year - since, the national power demand has continued to be strong. In the first six months, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 2251.5 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%, which was at a high level in recent years
february to April is the off-season, but the "off-season" is not light. There is a large power gap from the eastern coast to the central region, of which the maximum power limit load of Hunan power has reached 5.7 million KW, accounting for one third of the actual power demand of the province
the electric power situation this summer is not optimistic. The State Electricity Regulatory Commission predicts that the national daily maximum power load and maximum power generation from July to September will be about 14% and 11% higher than last year's peak respectively. Except for the surplus of more than 30million kilowatts in Northeast China, Mengxi and Northwest China, the supply in most other regions is tight during peak hours, with a total gap of about 30million-40million kilowatts
among them, the machines in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hubei, Chongqing, Hunan, Guangdong, Beijing, Tianjin and Tangshan will automatically record the relevant data. The contradiction between power supply and demand during summer is more prominent
main reason: the high energy consumption industry is "weak and vigorous"
according to the statistics released by the National Energy Administration on the 14th, from January to June, the total power consumption of China's heavy industry was 1393.2 billion kwh, an increase of 12.0%, accounting for 61.9% of the total power consumption of the whole society
according to the data, in the first five months of this year, the six high energy consuming industries, such as electric power, steel, building materials, nonferrous metals, chemical industry and petrochemical industry, contributed 42.7% to the growth of electricity consumption in the whole society. High energy consuming industries are still the main driving force for the growth of electricity consumption in the whole society
a relevant person from the National Energy Administration said in an interview that the absolute electricity consumption of the six high energy consuming industries accounts for two-thirds of the electricity consumption of the secondary industry and more than one-half of the electricity consumption of the whole society. The absolute amount and contribution rate of electricity consumption in high energy consuming industries reflect the rapid development momentum of these industries in the first half of the year
"the growth of electricity consumption exceeded the normal and expected development. In the first half of the year, the total transferred electricity increased by 30% year-on-year, greatly exceeding the expected growth rate of 15%." Lihongming, director of the external relations department of Jiangxi electric power company, analyzed that the rapid growth of power consumption in polysilicon, steel, non-ferrous smelting, building materials and other high energy consuming industries in the province is the main "driver" of the "power shortage"
"the economy continued to improve, and the demand for electricity was strong. In particular, at the end of last year, the electricity consumption of high energy consuming industries restrained by energy conservation and emission reduction policies resumed growth, which was a major reason for the shortage of electricity in the first half of the year." Said huzhaoguang, vice president of the National Electric Energy Research Institute
at the same time, the contradiction between "market coal and planned electricity" accumulated for a long time has become prominent again, and the "price inversion" has seriously affected the enthusiasm of power plants for power generation, which is also an important reason for this round of "power shortage"
since this year, the price of power coal has risen rapidly. At present, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao has reached 840-850 yuan/ton, the highest level since November 2008, nearly 100 yuan higher than the price in the same period last year. The financial situation of some power generation enterprises deteriorated. According to the statistics of China Electricity Council, the thermal power business of Huaneng and other five power generation groups lost 12.16 billion yuan, an increase of 7.86 billion yuan over the same period of last year
prescription: accelerate the transformation of mode and improve the quality of development
in an interview with Xinhua news agency, the relevant person in charge of the State Electricity Regulatory Commission said that the power demand was still strong in the second half of the year, and the growth rate was expected to be about 11%, and the annual growth rate could reach 12%
"in the second half of the year, the GDP of most provinces will maintain double-digit growth. With a number of new projects put into operation, the power demand will increase significantly, and the overall supply and demand will be tight." The person in charge of meeting the needs of the electronic information field said
according to the national electricity forecast, the power load of air conditioning will drive the national coal consumption to usher in a new round of peak, and the maximum daily coal consumption will reach a new high of 4.3 million tons, 300000 tons higher than the maximum daily coal consumption at the beginning of this year
although some provinces and cities raised electricity prices successively in April and June this year, the cost of rising coal prices is still not sufficiently channeled, which continues to affect the enthusiasm of thermal power enterprises for power generation
the confluence of the two factors may make "power shortage" a normal state, which also indicates its operation. To achieve "physical fitness" through structural adjustment and industrial upgrading, it is very important to clean up after each use. The fundamental solution to alleviate the current contradiction between power supply and demand is to achieve "empty fire" through energy conservation and emission reduction and control of total energy consumption
huzhaoguang suggested that more market means such as price should be used to deal with the "power shortage". For example, the implementation of peak shifting and power transfer, reward and punishment measures for high energy consuming industries, and the implementation of seasonal peak hour price increases for large industries and general industrial and commercial users will help curb the demand of large power users, promote energy conservation and emission reduction, and guide enterprises to pay more attention to industrial structure adjustment. In order to promote the echelon layout of industrial division in the East, central and western regions, regional differential electricity prices can also be implemented
according to a report of the Ministry of industry and information technology, in the second half of the year, we should strengthen the guarantee and coordination of production factors, promote the demand side management of power in the industrial field, reasonably and orderly arrange industrial power consumption, adopt differential electricity prices and other measures, appropriately restrict the production of products in industries with excessive high coal consumption and high power consumption, and reduce unreasonable demand
the relevant person in charge of the State Electricity Regulatory Commission believes that while implementing seasonal price increases for large users during peak hours, it is necessary to actively promote the step price of residential electricity, and then implement the peak valley price. The final solution to "market coal and planned electricity" is still the reform of the power system to gradually play the role of the market in regulating demand